Polls Heavily Favoring Republicans in NH

Real Clear Politics is reporting that Republicans are polling very well against Democrats in New Hampshire - NH Poll: Dems Face A Thumpin'. If Democrats can't learn a lesson from their defeat in Massachusetts they are likely to get another chance to learn that lesson in New Hampshire. New Hampshire's state motto is 'live free or die', and it's a fitting motto for the state. The overall philosophy of NH is 'get out of my pocketbook, and get out of my personal life.' New Hampshire is fiscally conservative, but not that socially conservative, and it is very independent. This is a pretty simple protest vote from New Hampshire, 'Government, you're spending too much money, and not helping our economic situation.' When New England states turn red, it's not because the people have been reborn as social conservatives, it's because the government is causing more problems than they're fixing. For NH it's a pretty easy bet, that if the people are upset, then government is spending too much of their money.

First, the Senate race to replace Judd Gregg (R). Rep. Paul Hodes (D) trails former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R), and he doesn't poll above 40 in any matchup, even with the lesser-known potential opponents he leads.

Ayotte (R) 41 -- Hodes (D) 33 -- Und 25
Hodes (D) 38 -- Lamontagne (R) 29 -- Und 30
Hodes (D) 34 -- Binnnie (R) 30 -- Und 33
Hodes (D) 36 -- Bender (R) 27 -- Und 35

In the first Congressional District, Rep. Carol Shea Porter sees her favorable rating dip to 35 percent while 40 percent now view her unfavorably, a net drop of 11 points from October. Right now four Republicans are likely running to challenge her, and she trails each one.

Guinta (R) 43 -- Shea Porter (D) 33 -- Und 22
Ashooh (R) 36 -- Shea Porter (D) 33 -- Und 28
Bestani (R) 36 -- Shea Porter (D) 33 -- Und 30
Mahoney (R) 39 -- Shea Porter (D) 32 -- Und 28

The second Congressional District sees an open seat race. Former Rep. Charlie Bass (R) is running to reclaim the seat he lost to Hodes in 2006; 2008 nominee Jennifer Horn (R) is also running again. On the Democratic side, attorney Ann McLane Kuster (D) will likely face 2002 nominee Katrine Swett (D). Only Swett holds a lead in potential matchups with both Republicans.

Kelly Ayotte Sparks Interest and Attacks in New Hampshire

As Kelly Ayotte looks like a likely candidate for the open Senate seat in NH, the Democrats appear nervous at the prospect launching negative attacks comparing her to both Charlie Crist and Sarah Palin, apparently arguing that she is both too moderate and too conservative.

Excerpt from the New Hampshire Business Review 2010 races starting to take shape.

The most interesting political event occurred when Attorney General Kelly A. Ayotte abruptly announced that she would resign her office to investigate running for the Senate. This followed press speculation about her running and firm predictions by many (including the governor and me, for separate reasons) that she would not do so.

Her announcement produced some inappropriate and intemperate comparisons to Governor Palin’s announcement in Alaska, especially from the head of the New Hampshire Democratic Party.

Ayotte is a talented, serious and experienced public servant. Prosecuting murder cases and administering the largest group of government attorneys in the state, with the attendant responsibility for setting policy, giving advice, and providing oversight of governmental operations, is more experience than most candidates for public office have, so any comments about her not having served in elective office should be discounted substantially.

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