Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Polls Heavily Favoring Republicans in NH

Real Clear Politics is reporting that Republicans are polling very well against Democrats in New Hampshire - NH Poll: Dems Face A Thumpin'. If Democrats can't learn a lesson from their defeat in Massachusetts they are likely to get another chance to learn that lesson in New Hampshire. New Hampshire's state motto is 'live free or die', and it's a fitting motto for the state. The overall philosophy of NH is 'get out of my pocketbook, and get out of my personal life.' New Hampshire is fiscally conservative, but not that socially conservative, and it is very independent. This is a pretty simple protest vote from New Hampshire, 'Government, you're spending too much money, and not helping our economic situation.' When New England states turn red, it's not because the people have been reborn as social conservatives, it's because the government is causing more problems than they're fixing. For NH it's a pretty easy bet, that if the people are upset, then government is spending too much of their money.

First, the Senate race to replace Judd Gregg (R). Rep. Paul Hodes (D) trails former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R), and he doesn't poll above 40 in any matchup, even with the lesser-known potential opponents he leads.

Ayotte (R) 41 -- Hodes (D) 33 -- Und 25
Hodes (D) 38 -- Lamontagne (R) 29 -- Und 30
Hodes (D) 34 -- Binnnie (R) 30 -- Und 33
Hodes (D) 36 -- Bender (R) 27 -- Und 35

In the first Congressional District, Rep. Carol Shea Porter sees her favorable rating dip to 35 percent while 40 percent now view her unfavorably, a net drop of 11 points from October. Right now four Republicans are likely running to challenge her, and she trails each one.

Guinta (R) 43 -- Shea Porter (D) 33 -- Und 22
Ashooh (R) 36 -- Shea Porter (D) 33 -- Und 28
Bestani (R) 36 -- Shea Porter (D) 33 -- Und 30
Mahoney (R) 39 -- Shea Porter (D) 32 -- Und 28

The second Congressional District sees an open seat race. Former Rep. Charlie Bass (R) is running to reclaim the seat he lost to Hodes in 2006; 2008 nominee Jennifer Horn (R) is also running again. On the Democratic side, attorney Ann McLane Kuster (D) will likely face 2002 nominee Katrine Swett (D). Only Swett holds a lead in potential matchups with both Republicans.

1 comment:

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