McCain Gains Ground on Romney in New Hampshire

New Polling data from Rasmussen shows a statistical dead heat in NH between Romney and McCain. A huge comeback for McCain after being written off last summer, now he's poised for a vistory.

Election 2008: New Hampshire Republican Primary
New Hampshire: Romney 31% McCain 27%

Wednesday, December 19, 2007
AdvertismentIn many places around the country, Mitt Romney is facing a challenge from Mike Huckabee. However, in New Hampshire, Huck-a-mania never took hold. But, following endorsements from the Manchester Union Leader, the Boston Globe, and Senator Joe Lieberman, John McCain is now challenging Romney in the state he won eight years ago.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the state shows Romney with 31% support, McCain at 27% and no one else close. Rudy Giuliani attracts 13% and Huckabee barely reaches double digits at 11%. This is the first time any candidate has been within single digits of Romney in several months. It remains to be seen whether this is a temporary bounce or a lasting change.

Before the latest endorsements, it was Romney 33% and McCain 18%. In late-November, Romney led by nineteen points. Earlier in November he was up by fifteen.

McCain also gained ground in Iowa over the past week. However, starting from a much lower base, he remains a distant third. Rasmussen Reports polling data released today shows that Huckabee’s support has receded a bit in Iowa so that Romney is once again tied for the lead. Huckabee and Romney are also tied in South Carolina. Huckabee still leads nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Among Democrats, new polling released today shows slight leads for Clinton in both Iowa and New Hampshire.

McCain leads among voters over 65 while Romney does better with younger voters. Romney has the lead among Republicans while McCain has a slight edge among Independents who will participate in the Republican Primary. Romney has the edge among conservatives, McCain among moderates.

The results of both the Republican and the Democratic caucuses could have a significant impact on the Republican Primary in New Hampshire. If Hillary Clinton wins in Iowa, many independent voters currently supporting Barack Obama could change their mind and vote in the GOP Primary. At the moment, that looks like it would help McCain. It’s the same model that McCain used to win the state eight years ago.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Romney’s supporters say they are “certain” to vote for him on January 8. That’s little changed from the previous poll. However, 61% of McCain’s supporters say they are certain, an increase from 46%. That increase is especially impressive given the dramatic growth in support for McCain.

The amazingly fluid nature of the Republican race makes it clear there is no frontrunner at this time.

Among New Hampshire’s Likely Republican Primary Voters, National Security Issues are deemed Very Important by 78%. Government ethics and corruption is seen as that important by 68%, immigration and Iraq by 66% each. Fifty-nine percent (59%) say the economy is Very Important in determining how they will vote.

Romney and McCain are each viewed favorably by 78% of Likely Primary voters. For McCain, that positive assessment reflects a remarkable comeback from the summer when he was viewed favorably by just 53% of Likely Republican Primary Voters. At the time, he was also viewed unfavorably by 43%. Now, just 20% offer an unfavorable opinion of the Arizona Senator.

Giuliani earns positive reviews from 72% of Likely Primary Voters in New Hampshire.

Huckabee is viewed favorably by 44% and unfavorably by 50%. Those figures reflect a sharp decline over the past week. In fact, his numbers are now similar to Ron Paul’s—41% have a favorable opinion of the Texas Congressman while 52% voice an unfavorable opinion.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_republican_primary/